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(9) Ohio State (20-7, 13-14 ATS) at (11) Michigan State (21-6, 10-16 ATS)
Michigan State goes after its third straight victory when it welcomes Ohio State to the Breslin Events Center in East Lansing, Mich., for a Big Ten battle between ranked squads.
Ohio State’s six-game winning streak came to an end Wednesday as it fell 60-57 to Purdue as a 3½-point home favorite. However, the Buckeyes have won four straight Big Ten road games (3-1 ATS) after losing their first three conference roadies (0-3 ATS). For the season, Ohio State is just 5-6 away from home (4-7 ATS), and even though it shoots 45.1 percent and hold opponents to 42.3 percent on the highway, the Buckeyes get outscored 64.9 points per game to 64 ppg.
The Spartans started out the conference season with nine straight victories – part of a 10-game overall winning streak – then dropped their next three in a row, including a 76-64 home loss to Purdue on Feb. 9, their first defeat of the year at the Breslin Events Center. However, Michigan State has since rebounded with a pair of impressive road wins at Penn State (65-54 as a 6½-point favorite last Saturday) and Indiana (72-58 as an 11½-point chalk on Tuesday). Those two spread-covers come on the heels of a 1-7 ATS slump.
Michigan State is 13-1 at the Breslin Center, but even though they’re outscoring visitors by 14 ppg (76-62), they’re just 4-9 ATS as a host.
The Spartans swept the regular-season series from Ohio State last year, winning 67-58 at home (failing to cover as an 11-point underdog) and 78-67 on the road (easily cashing as a three-point road chalk). However, the Buckeyes got revenge in the Big Ten tournament, rolling 82-70 as an eight-point underdog. OSU has cashed in five of the last seven meetings, all as an underdog, going 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to East Lansing. In fact, the ‘dog has covered in seven of the last 10 series clashes, while the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight.
The Buckeyes have covered in five of their last seven against winning teams, but they’re just 3-5 ATS in their last eight overall and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 on Sunday. Michigan State has cashed in six straight Sunday outings, but otherwise Tom Izzo’s team is in pointspread funks of 3-7 overall (all in the Big Ten), 0-4 at home, 0-5 versus teams with a winning record and 2-5 after a SU victory.
Ohio State has stayed under the total in four straight games overall, 15 of 22 on the road, 19 of 26 on Sunday and 11 of 14 after a non-cover. Similarly, the Spartans are on “under” runs of 9-4 overall, 18-7 in the Big Ten, 8-2 after a SU victory and 7-0 after a spread-cover. Conversely, the over has hit in three of the last four meetings after a 4-1-1 “under” run in this series
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER
(3) Villanova (22-3, 16-8 ATS) at (19) Pittsburgh (20-6, 13-8-2 ATS)
The Wildcats return to the court for the first time since suffering their first home loss of the season as they travel to Petersen Events Center looking to upend resurgent Pitt.
Villanova went into Monday’s game against UConn as a 9½-point home favorite but got clipped 84-75, going down for the first time this season on their own court. The Wildcats have followed up an 11-game winning streak – including nine straight victories to start the Big East campaign – by splitting their last four contests (1-1 at home, 1-1 on the road). Also, they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five after cashing in 15 of their first 19 contests.
In its most recent road game, Villanova knocked off West Virginia 82-75 as a 5½-point pup, improving to 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS in road/neutral-site affairs. The Wildcats average 84.4 ppg on the highway (48.5 percent shooting) but surrender 79.6 ppg (42.8 percent).
The Panthers kicked off the conference season 4-0 – part of a seven-game overall win streak (5-0-1 ATS in lined games) – but then hit the skids in dropping four of their next five, all in the Big East. They’ve since rebounded to win four in a row, going 3-0 SU and ATS in Big East contests. That includes Thursday’s 58-51 upset win at Marquette as a six-point road underdog.
Pitt has won 35 of its last 36 at home, the only blemish being a 74-66 loss to Georgetown as a one-point favorite back on Jan. 20. This year, the Panthers are 13-1 SU and 6-4-2 ATS at Petersen Events Center, putting up 71.3 ppg (47.6 percent shooting) and limiting opponents to just 58.1 ppg (37 percent).
The Wildcats defeated Pitt twice last year, winning 67-57 as a 3½-point home underdog in the regular season, then gutting out a 78-76 victory as a two-point underdog in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament, a win that sent Villanova to the Final Four. Prior to last year, the Panthers had been on a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS roll in this rivalry. The underdog has covered in five of the last six meetings (including four outright upsets), but the host has gotten the money in eight of the last 10.
The SU winner is 13-3 ATS in Villanova’s last 16 contests, 6-0 ATS in Pitt’s last six lined games and 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this rivalry.
With the exception of their current 1-4 ATS slump, the Wildcats are on pointspread upticks of 6-1 on the highway, 8-1 on Sunday, 5-2 after a SU loss and 11-5 versus winning teams. Pitt is riding ATS hot streaks of 11-3-1 overall, 7-1-2 at home, 9-3-1 in Big East action, 12-3-2 versus winning teams, 7-2-1 after a SU victory and 5-2-1 on Sunday.
Villanova is on “over” runs of 15-4 overall, 5-0 on the road, 9-3 in the Big East, 4-1 on Sunday, 7-1 after a SU defeat and 5-0 after a non-cover. Also, Pitt has topped the total in four of five at home, four of five on Sunday and four of five after a SU win. However, prior to last year’s NCAA Tournament meeting, the previous six clashes between these schools stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Virginia Tech (21-4, 10-9 ATS) at (6) Duke (22-4, 16-8-1 ATS)
Virginia Tech, which has won five in a row (all in the ACC), faces its stiffest challenge of the season when it invades Cameron Indoor Stadium for a conference battle with the sixth-ranked Blue Devils.
The Hokies are coming off a pair of narrow home wins over Virginia (61-55 as a 6½-point chalk last Saturday) and Wake Forest (87-83 as a 5½-point favorite on Tuesday). The two non-covers follow a three-game ATS surge for Virginia Tech, which has now won eight of its last nine games overall, going 7-1 SU (4-4 ATS) in ACC play during this stretch. All four of the Hokies’ defeats this year have come away from home, where they’re 7-4 SU and 6-4 ATS, outscoring teams by just 2.2 ppg (69-66.8).
Like Virginia Tech, Duke rolls into this contest on a five-game winning streak (3-0-1 ATS), with three of those victories coming on the road. That includes Wednesday’s 81-74 come-from-behind win at Miami, as the Blue Devils erased a 12-point halftime deficit by outscoring the Hurricanes 56-37 over the final 20 minutes. Still, they were only able to push as a seven-point road favorite. During its five-game winning streak, Duke is outscoring opponents by 12 ppg (74.8-62.8), and it is actually shooting better from beyond the three-point arc (45.4 percent) as opposed to overall (40.9 percent). Take away a 12-point non-conference loss at Georgetown, and Mike Krzyzewksi’s club has won seven straight ACC games (5-1-1 ATS).
Duke has been dominant at Cameron Indoor this season, winning 14 straight games by an average of 27.6 ppg (88.7-61.1) while outshooting visitors by a 49.3 percent to 38.9 percent margin (43.6 percent to 28.4 percent from three-point range). Going back to last year, the Blue Devils have won 16 in a row at home (11-4 ATS).
Duke is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run against Virginia Tech, with two of those victories coming in Blacksburg and the other being last year’s 69-44 rout at home as a 17-point favorite. The SU winner has covered the spread in seven of eight meetings since the Hokies joined the ACC in 2004-05, including the last five in a row. The favorite – which was Duke –cashed in four of those five, but the visitor is 5-1 ATS in the last six.
Va-Tech has failed to cover in five of its last six on Sunday, but it is 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the highway and 4-1 ATS in its last five after a non-cover. The Blue Devils are on pointspread tears of 3-1-1 overall, 13-3 at home, 5-1-1 in ACC action and 5-0 on Sunday.
The under is 4-1 in the Hokies’ last five contests overall and 25-10 in Duke’s last 35 ACC games. However, Virginia Tech has topped the total in 15 of 22 after a SU win and eight of 12 on Sunday. Finally, the under was the play in last year’s two meetings between these teams after five of the first six conference clashes went over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE
NBA
Cleveland (43-13, 28-27-1 ATS) at Orlando (37-19, 28-27-1 ATS)
The Cavaliers, who have followed up 13-game winning streak with back-to-back losses, try to get back on track when they trek to Amway Arena in search of their third victory over the Magic this season in as many tries.
Cleveland’s 13-game run ended with Thursday’s 118-116 overtime loss to Denver as a 6½-point home favorite, and it followed that 24 hours later with a 110-93 setback at Charlotte as a 4½-point road chalk. The Cavaliers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games, a slump that follows a 6-0 spread-covering run. However, their last spread-cover came in a 115-106 rout of Orlando as a six-point home favorite on Feb. 11, which capped Cleveland’s 13-game winning streak.
Orlando came out of the All-Star break on Wednesday and destroyed Detroit 116-91 as an 11-point home favorite, but failed to build on that momentum as it lost 95-85 to the Mavericks on Friday as a seven-point home chalk, getting outscored 30-16 in the fourth quarter. The Magic are still 11-4 in their last 15 games, but just 8-7 ATS. They’ve also won eight of their last 10 at Amway Arena, going just 5-5 ATS (1-3 ATS in the last four).
In addition to pounding the Magic by nine points 10 days ago in Cleveland, the Cavaliers own a 102-93 win in Orlando as a one-point underdog that came way back on Nov. 11. Those two victories follow last year’s Eastern Conference finals series, which the Magic won in six games (5-1 ATS). Orlando, despite failing to cover in both meetings this year, is still 15-4 ATS in the last 19 series meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes in Florida.
The Cavs’ current 1-4 ATS slump is offset by positive pointspread streaks of 17-8-1 against winning teams, 37-18 after a SU loss, 22-6 following a double-digit defeat, 10-3 on Sunday, 7-1 when playing after one day off and 4-1 against the Southeast Division.
The Magic have failed to cover in five of seven against winning teams and 36 of 52 following a double-digit home defeat, but they’re otherwise on ATS runs of 6-2 against the Eastern Conference, 4-1 against the Central Division, 4-1 after one day of rest, 4-0 following a non-cover and 4-0 on Sunday.
Cleveland carries “over” trends of 5-0-1 overall, 4-0-1 against the Eastern Conference, 3-1-1 versus the Southeast Division and 5-0 versus winning teams. However, the under is 41-15-2 in the Cavs’ last 58 Sunday contests. Meanwhile, Orlando is on “under” runs of 15-6 overall, 7-3 at home, 22-8 after a defeat, 36-15 following a non-cover, 40-18 when playing on one day of rest and 10-2 on Sunday.
Finally, going back to last year’s Eastern Conference finals series, the over has hit in the last five meetings between these teams, and four of the last five battles at Amway Arena have also cleared the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
Boston (35-18, 21-31-1 ATS) at Denver (36-19, 25-27-3 ATS)
The Celtics conclude a five-game Western Conference road swing when they pay their only visit of the season to the Pepsi Center to face the Nuggets.
Boston’s journey started back on Feb. 10, when it blew a second-half lead at New Orleans and fell 93-85 as a five-point favorite. The trip resumed following the All-Star break, and the Celtics have ripped off three straight wins, topping Sacramento 95-92 on Tuesday (failing to cash as a 5½-point favorite), the Lakers 87-86 on Thursday (as a 2 ½-point underdog) and Portland on Friday 96-76 (as a three-point pup). Prior to covering the spread in its last two games, Boston had been in a 2-11-1 ATS freefall.
One day after stealing a 118-116 overtime win in Cleveland as a 6½-point underdog – ending the Cavaliers’ 13-game winning streak in the process – Denver went to Washington and took a nine-point lead into the fourth quarter. But everything fell apart for the Nuggets in the final 12 minutes, as they got outscored 34-15 and lost 107-97 as a six-point underdog. Denver has been struggling with consistency, as it has split its last 10 games (4-5-1 ATS), alternating SU wins and losses in its last eight. This comes on the heels of an eight-game winning streak.
The Celtics continue to sport one of the NBA’s best road records at 20-9, but they’re just 15-14 ATS. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have won 23 of 28 home games, going only 14-13-1 ATS. They’ve followed up a nine-game home winning streak by losing two of their last three at the Pepsi Center.
Last year, Boston – in the fifth game of a six-game Western Conference road trip – went to Denver as a one-point favorite and destroyed the Nuggets 114-76, ending a four-game SU and ATS losing streak in the Mile High City. The road team took both of last year’s matchups after the host had won the previous seven in a row SU and ATS. The winner has covered the pointspread in each of the last 17 meetings.
With Friday’s victory in Portland, the Celtics have now covered in four of five against Northwest Division opponents. Other than that, they’re in ATS funks of 4-11-1 overall, 2-8-1 against the Western Conference, 3-7 after a SU win, 1-5 after a spread-cover and 1-5-1 when playing on one day of rest.
Denver is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven on Sunday and it has failed to cash in 13 of 19 after one day off. From there, though, George Karl’s club is on pointspread surges of 4-0 after a SU defeat, 7-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 18-6 against the Atlantic Division and 3-1-1 versus winning teams.
Boston has stayed under the total in six straight games overall, five in a row on the road, six straight against the Western Conference and 11 of 15 on Sunday, and the under is 39-19-1 in its last 59 games following a double-digit win. The under is also 5-1 in Denver’s last six games when playing on one day of rest. Conversely, the over is 4-1 in the Celtics’ five against the Northwest Division, 7-2 in Denver’s last nine against the Eastern Conference and 6-2 in the last eight Celtics-Nuggets eight meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
Utah (35-19, 33-18-3 ATS) at Portland (32-25, 30-26-1 ATS)
The streaking Jazz attempt to complete a perfect four-game road trip when they return to the Rose Garden for a Northwest Division showdown against the inconsistent Trail Blazers.
Utah is 3-0 SU and ATS on its current road trip, knocking off Houston on Tuesday (104-95 as a three-point favorite), New Orleans on Wednesday (98-90 as a four-point favorite) and Golden State on Friday (100-98 as a five-point chalk). The Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA, having won 17 of their last 19 games while going 15-2-3 ATS. They’ve also won and covered six straight road games, the last five as a favorite.
The Jazz have scored 100 points or more 16 times during their 17-2 run, and they’ve held 17 of their last 21 opponents under the century mark. Over its last five games, Jerry Sloan’s squad is yielding just 93.8 ppg (41.6 percent shooting).
Portland’s modest two-game SU and ATS uptick ended in ugly fashion Friday, as it fell 96-76 to Boston as a three-point home favorite, even though All-Star point guard Brandon Roy played 34 minutes, his most extensive in more than five weeks as he had missed 14 of the previous 16 games with a hamstring injury. The Blazers are just 5-7 SU and 6-6 ATS in their last 12 games, including 3-5 SU and ATS at home.
During Utah’s 17-2 hot streak and Portland’s 5-7 slump, these teams have met twice – once in each team’s gym – and the Jazz took both games by scores of 106-95 (as a 2½-point road chalk) and 118-105 (as a 7½-point home favorite). Throw in a 108-92 rout as a five-point home chalk on Nov. 28 in Salt Lake City, and Utah has won and covered all three meetings this season.
Despite last month’s result in Portland, the home team is still 9-1 SU and ATS in the last 10 series clashes, with Utah going 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to the Rose Garden. Also, the favorite has cashed in each of the last nine meetings and is 18-6 ATS in the last 24, while the SU winner is 14-0 ATS in the last 14.
The Jazz are on a slew of positive pointspread streaks, including 19-6-3 overall, 15-5-1 on the road (6-0 last six), 20-7-2 as a favorite, 5-0 as a road chalk, 12-2-2 against the Western Conference, 2-0-2 against divisional rivals, 8-1 when playing on one day of rest and 18-6-3 versus opponents with a winning record.
Portland is on ATS upticks of 31-14 as a home underdog, 22-10 as a home pup of less than five points, 4-1 on Sunday and 8-2 after a SU defeat. On the flip side, the Blazers have failed to cover in four of their last five against Northwest Division opponents and nine of 13 after a double-digit home loss.
Utah is on “under” runs of 4-0 overall (all in the Western Conference and all as a favorite) and 13-6 as a road chalk of less than five points, while Portland has stayed low in five of six overall, five of six at home, four straight as an underdog and four of five as a home pup. Conversely, the “over” is on stretches of 5-0 for the Jazz against winning teams, 4-1 for the Jazz on Sunday, 13-3 for the Jazz versus Northwest Division foes, 4-1 for Portland in divisional battles and 5-0 for Portland against winning teams.
Finally, the over has cashed in five consecutive meetings between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and OVER
